How good is Jonny Venters?
It's a serious question. If you've watched the late innings of more than one Braves game this year, you've almost assuredly seen two pitchers: Jonny Venters in the 8th and Craig Kimbrel in the 9th.
Kimbrel is the successor to the save machine (and eight-time All-Star) known as Billy Wagner. Wagner is still under contract to the Braves this year, but he made it known he was not going to be back. He hasn't filed retirement papers thanks to a technicality in MLB contracts, but he's not coming back anytime soon, despite what you hear from Frank Wren about welcoming him back with open arms.
(Watch, I'll hit publish on this post and five minutes later Billy will be headed on a plane to meet the Braves in Miami for the last game of this series. It's just my luck.)
But this isn't about Kimbrel. He might get his own little write-up later.
First, a history lesson of sorts.
The Braves have been built around pitching for the better part of the last two decades. But surprisingly to outsiders, Braves starters almost never pitch complete games. Greg McMichael was the closer in 1993 and 1994, racking up an astounding 91 innings in '93 alone, arguably ruining his arm long-term. Mark Wohlers was the dominant closer for the mid-90's juggernaut (but I've already written about what happened to that poor son of a bitch). Wohlers was followed by Kerry Ligtenberg, who had to have Tommy John surgery after his one season as closer. Ligtenberg's absence led to the rise of John Rocker.
Hoo-boy. Remind me to write that one up one day when I have too much free time. For now, let's just all agree that he was a very good pitcher (2.3 fWAR) who didn't know that discretion is sometimes the better part of valor.
After Rocker imploded, they gave the job to some no-name coming off of Tommy John surgery. I think his name was John Smoltz.
Smoltzy is the Platonic ideal behind the meme that starters can become closers (and vice versa). He's the best closer the Braves have ever had (3.0 fWAR, the highest for a Braves closer since 1991), and his 154 saves over four years are more than enough evidence to make his case. After four years, Smoltz thought that he could contribute more to the Braves as a starter, so he moved back out of the bullpen in 2005. He went on to win 44 games in 3 years, so he's probably right about that one.
This leads to the dark ages of Atlanta closers. Dan Kolb, Chris Reitsma, and Bob Wickman. Even whispering those names around Turner Field will provoke dirty looks if not outright physical aggression.
This was followed by two years of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, splitting duties due to alternating injuries. Soriano showed flashes of dominance, but he could never stay healthy for extended periods. Gonzalez was good in a secondary role, but was inconsistent and shared the injury bug with Soriano. Both left after 2009, leading to the Braves signing Billy Wagner.
That little narrative detour brings us up to the present. By now, you should have seen the pattern: as the closers go, so goes Atlanta. When the closers are dominant, the Braves are forces to be reckoned with. When the closers go south, the Braves begin to languish.
Which is why Atlanta is so fortunate to have two (or more) pitchers who have the ability to close. Fredi Gonzalez said at the beginning of the season that he would alternate closers depending on the situation, but so far he has chosen (wisely, in my opinion) to use Venters as a setup man and Kimbrel as closer exclusively. Some pitchers would take umbrage at being "demoted" to setup, but Venters has taken to the role like a duck to water.
His numbers have been absolutely gaudy this year. In 33 games and 36.1 innings, he has an ERA of 0.49.
No, I did not miss a decimal point there. Forty-nine hundredths of a run per nine innings pitched.
In addition, Jonny's getting an insane amount of grounders (81.3%), more than a strikeout an inning (9.08 K/9), NO homers, and when he does get a base runner, 93.3% of the time he leaves him stranded. In 495 pitches, he has thrown 300 strikes. All this in a role that some players with Venters' talent would see as "beneath" them.
In addition, his presence in the Braves clubhouse has been marvelous. You know that kid we stole from the Tigers a few years back, Jair Jurrjens? You know how he's been a monster this year, based on his sinker? Guess who taught him how to throw that nasty sinker?
Venters is by far the most dominant setup guy in baseball right now. Jim Powell, an announcer for over 25 years, said that Venters reminds him of Mariano Rivera, except with a positively filthy sinker instead of Rivera's unhittable cut fastball. Dusty Baker, a man who has been around baseball for almost half a century, has said Jonny is "one of the nastiest around" in terms of pitches. Baker went on to compare Venters to Sparky Lyle and Joe Sambito, two left-handers from the late 1970's renowned for All-Star level pitching prowess.
But how good will Venters continue to be? Hell, he could get hit by a bus, fall on a rusty spoon and catch AIDS tomorrow. He could (God forbid) start to pull a Wohlers.
But if he keeps going like he's going, he could be an integral part of the Braves' plans for years to come. And maybe more. From what we've seen since 2010, he's good and has the potential to be great.
And if he's not in the All-Star game this year, the entire system is broken and everyone involved with pitcher selection should be drawn and quartered, and I reserve the right to yell truly obscene things at my television and/or computer screen and/or random passersby for at least a week..
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