 |
| I realize this is not a photograph from the era of the New Bill James Historical Abstract but I like it |
I have been spending an inordinate amount of time with FanGraphs Audio of late, having taken on the (honestly fairly obvious) project of listening to every Carson-Cistulli-hosted episode in reverse chronological order. This is to say, I began some weeks ago with Episode 844: Carson Cistulli Fulfills His Obligation (November 16, 2018), and have thus far worked my way back to, let's see . . . Episode 678: Eric Longenhagen, Lead Prospect Analyst (August 30, 2016), with every intention to go all the way back to the earliest days. (The earliest episode I remember distinctly and with real clarity featured the inventor of Big League Chew, Rob Nelson, interviewed by a Carson Cistulli who bordered on ékstasis throughout; some quick searching reveals this to have been Episode 57: Rob Nelson of Big League Chew [January 14, 2011]). This endeavour has understandably and perhaps inevitably led to several tensions between the primary world of our experience and the secondary worlds of memory and subcreation (in Tolkien's sense) to the extent to which this reverse chronology of baseball analytics and fellowship has intersected with the false chronology (or the true chronology of a realm bound by artifice?) of my current MLB The Show 2016 season (guess which MLB The Show is the last one they made for the last video game console I will ever own: that's right it is MLB The Show 2016! lucky for me it's really good! I turned Josh Donaldson with less than a year left on his contract and an aspect I do not enjoy into Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenley Jansen, Kevin Jepsen, and Trevor Plouffe! and brought in Shin-Soo Choo for a somewhat-washed R. A. Dickey [no disrespect, a very neat guy]! but I am "showing you my Pokémans" so hard right now, forgive me). On the whole, this has been an enormously pleasant undertaking, though one that, at the same time, has made clear both what FanGraphs once was (a completely idiosyncratic mélange of æsthetics and ænalytics that emerged out of a years-long conversation between Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli) and what it is now (a still-good thing that is not that). This is nobody's fault, other than the major league teams that keep hiring up the people who were at the heart of it all, I suppose, a process ably detailed in Jen McCaffrey's excellent FanGraphs piece for The Athletic (subscription only but I have guest passes; let me know), and I still spend a good deal of time there bearing witness to Jay Jaffe's remembrances of guys past, particularly around Hall of Fame time. It's good! But it's also a little bit of a mess: cluttered with decreasingly-lucrative ads to the point where purchasing an add-free membership seems almost a requirement (and yet not quite one), encouraging its readers to pick up some merch from a store that has not restocked in months and months ("Do You Go To FanGraphs At All?" in a men's medium, where art thou?), and with a greatly diminished signature audio show despite the best efforts of fine writers and contributors who -- through no fault of their own, and probably to the overall benefit of their general person -- are not Carson Cistulli.
And yet despite all this I come to you today with a report from the bleeding edge of latter-day FanGraphs Audio, which, despite its limitations, undeniably had Bill James on with David Laurila for a great little fifteen minute segment, which you can listen to here. The premise: "David and Bill reflect on The New Bill James Historical Abstract (2001), Bill’s rankings of the best players at each position, and how his opinions may have changed in the two decades since. How does new research inform what we know about the greatest players of all time, and how do the new greats match up? And how does Bill feel these days about his 'most underrated player of all time?' [oddly it is Darrell Evans!--ed]." Some alarming information here concerning the passage of time, but it has grown increasingly hard to argue that 2001 was not twenty years ago, as strongly implied in the above. Beside me now sits my hardcover copy of The New Bill James Historical Abstract, which I think I bought pretty much as soon as it came out, and I have been trying to reconstruct how or why that happened. I think it's this: having arrived in Toronto in 2001 and attending Blue Jays games for the first time (and frequently!), I definitely began visiting the ESPN MLB page, a site at which Rob Neyer enjoyed both prominence and non-paywallèdness (Neyer is probably how I found my way to Baseball Primer, also of 2001, now that I think of it, and that was pretty much it for me [as for so many]). In any event, here it sits, twenty years later, this rich tome vital to my baseball education whose tone I do not necessarily enjoy anymore ("55. Cecil Fielder: A big fat guy who hit home runs for a few years" as the entirety of an entry is not irreverent so much as it is mean-spirited, or too mean-spirited for me, at least). A reminder: the big idea James used in his player rankings was Win Shares, an all-in-one measure of value of his own devising with a goal very similar to the Wins Above Replacement statistics that have totally superseded James' earlier efforts (though James himself is kind of not having it, as recently as late last year). But bWAR is on the back of Topps baseball cards these days (whither fWAR?), indicating a pretty full-on ship-sailing. Also this seems as good a place as any to post the screen capture of Carson Cistulli's appearance on MLB Network in which the chyrons seem to indicate an incredibly dystopian future until it settles in for you:
 |
| the minor leagues have always been a grind but I don't know |
Okay then, to the New Historical Abstract rankings! And their revisiting!
In 2001, here is who James had at the top of his list for first base (in the book, the lists go a hundred deep, but not here they won't [nor did they in conversation with Laurila, obviously {that'd be too many}]):
1. Lou Gherig
2. Jimmie Foxx
3. Mark McGwire
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Eddie Murray
6. Johnny Mize
7. Harmon Killebrew
8. Hank Greenberg
9. Willie McCovey
10. Frank Thomas
As of 2021: Generally, the 21st century has seen more really good players at first base than at any other position, we are told. Pujols, though trailing off at quite a rate, would now be either number two or three. Mark Teixeira isn't going to be top five or top ten, James notes, but he was a really good player. Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt are very good! And there would be twenty first baseman from the 21st century in the top 100 now, probably. Joey Votto would be top fifteen, "and Carlos Delgado, I mean he was a beast" (that's true!). Todd Helton is mentioned, too, as someone who should be in the Hall of Fame.
Second Base, through 2001:
1. Joe Morgan
2. Eddie Collins
3. Rogers Hornsby
4. Jackie Robinson
5. Craig Biggio
6. Nap Lajoie
7. Ryne Sandberg
8. Charlie Gehringer
9. Rod Carew
10. Roberto Alomar
In 2021: Chase Utley is praised lavishly as someone who seemed to be at the top of the leaderboard for every new thing James learned to measure between 2006 and 2010; Utley would certainly make the top twenty. No other players are mentioned.
Third Base, through 2001:
1. Mike Schmidt
2. George Brett
3. Eddie Matthews
4. Wade Boggs
5. Home Run Baker
6. Ron Santo
7. Brooks Robinson
8. Paul Molitor
9. Stan Hack
10. Darrell Evans
In 2021: A lot of Darrell Evans talk! Great player, and I happened upon his 1988 O-Pee-Chee card no more than two hours ago, but even so I think his lure eludes me slightly (it does not elude Bill James). No less a thirdbaseguy than Mike Schmidt himself has said that Nolan Arenado is really just a few more seasons away from being the best ever at the position, and it would have been neat to hear what James thought of this, but third base continues to be neglected by even the people who first informed you that third base was too often neglected. On to short!
Shortstop, through 2001:
1. Honus Wagner
2. Arky Vaughan
3. Cal Ripken
4. Robin Yount
5. Ernie Banks
6. Barry Larkin
7. Ozzie Smith
8. Joe Cronin
9. Alan Trammell
10. Pee Wee Reese
In 2021: Derek Jeter continues to be the belle of every ball, and Bill James has him at fifth. How long would Fernando Tatis Jr. (whose rookie card values are a problem for the set-completionist, but I wish him every success all the same) have to play at his current level to rank highly on the list, James is asked, but James is hesitant to say much of anything about that (four years, he eventually offers).
Catchers, through 2001:
1. Yogi Berra
2. Johnny Bench
3. Roy Campanella
4. Mickey Cochrane
5. Mike Piazza
6. Carlton Fisk
7. Bill Dickey
8. Gary Carter
9. Gabby Hartnett
10. Ted Simmons
In 2021: Ivan Rodriguez "would be very close to the top of the list now," which is honestly a joy to hear. "The 21st-century catchers" Jorge Posada, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, and Buster Posey are all to be considered in the same group just behind Simmons (Joe Torre was ranked 11th through 2001, by the way!).
Pitchers, through 2001:
1. Walter Johnson
2. Lefty Grove
3. Pete Alexander
4. Cy Young
5. Warren Sphan
6. Tom Seaver
7. Christy Mathewson
8. Bob Gibson
9. Kid Nichols
10. Sandy Koufax
In 2021: Pedro Martinez would be ahead of Koufax, with Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens all just ahead of Pedro. James thinks Koufax comes in lower than he should in WAR and Win Shares and everything else; there is just something about Koufax we've all somehow missed, I think he is saying (himself included); which is interesting.
Right Field, through 2001:
1. Babe Ruth
2. Henry Aaron
3. Frank Robinson
4. Mel Ott
5. Pete Rose
6. Tony Gwynn
7. Reggie Jackson
8. Roberto Clemente
9. Paul Waner
10. Sam Crawford
In 2021: They mostly talk about Bobby Murcer's ranking at number seventeen, and James admits he made a mistake with that ranking, and he can't even remember why. And then they move on! No! Say things about Ichiro! And Vladimir Guerrero! Nooooooo!
Center Field, through 2001:
1. Willie Mays
2. Ty Cobb
3. Mickey Mantle
4. Tris Speaker
5. Joe DiMaggio
6. Duke Snider
7. Ken Griffey Jr.
8. Kirby Puckett
9. Billy Hamilton
10. Jimmy Wynn
In 2021: The first order of business is the Hall of Fame case of Andruw Jones, and Bill James is not super duper buying it, as James thinks WAR's evaluation of Andruw Jones as a significantly better fielder than Willie Mays is not credible. Kenny Lofton, on the other hand, James sees as a clear Hall of Famer. I would love to see it! "Drinkin' Henny like I'm Kenny Lofton, outstandin'" is Action Bronson's contribution.
Left Field, through 2001:
1. Ted Williams
2. Stan Musial
3. Barry Bonds
4. Rickey Henderson
5. Carl Yastrzemski
6. Joe Jackson
7. Al Simmons
8. Tim Raines
9. Willie Stargell
10. Minnie Minoso
In 2021: The big question is what do you do with Barry Bonds, right? James has him holding steady at number three despite his enormous production in the final years of his career, applying a significant discount to what Bonds achieved in the uneven playing field of the steroid era.
They close with a brief mention of James' overall list of The 100 Greatest Players of all Time, the top ten of which looked like this in 2001:
1. Babe Ruth
2. Honus Wagner
3. Willie Mays
4. Oscar Charleston
5. Ty Cobb
6. Mickey Mantle
7. Ted Williams
8. Walter Johnson
9. Josh Gibson
10. Stan Musial
David Laurila notes the richly deserved but unusual inclusion of two Negro Leagues players in this top ten, and I would interject here that the substantial sections of the New Historical Abstract that addressed the Negro Leagues were a complete revelation to me in 2001. "And we know more about those guys now than we did years ago, due to the the research that's been done," James adds. Alex Rodriguez would have to land somewhere near the top of that list now, James says, so I guess maybe Musial would have to go (a shame but hey, that's the game). James says that when the pandemic is behind us, he wants to meet with Bob Kendrick, President of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, and talk about any adjustments that may need to be made. Bob Kendrick is on Twitter at @nlbmprez, by the way, a worthy follow in his own right but also a surprisingly good source of Geddy Lee content.
And that's it! Should they have gone much longer? And discussed a far, far greater number of guys? Yes, certainly. But a pretty fun exercise all the same! I don't think it's likely we'll see another Historical Baseball Abstract on the scale of the 2001 edition, which took James about four years to write, so little tweakings such as these are probably about all we're going to get. Neat, though! Where will Vladito, who looked great in the Blue Jays win over the Yankees yesterday on the first afternoon of the year that really felt like spring, one day rank? Really very near the top, you would almost certainly have to think. Let's find out together, maybe!
KS
