An Improtu FanGraphs Chat, Edited and Abridged for Your Edification and Delight

Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs doesn't think the Vernon trade is a particularly good deal from the Angels' perspective. Read the whole thing here, or keep on reading after the jump for much, much more of this.  I've edited this so that what you get here is all Vernon stuff unmix'd with baser matter.  Enjoy!


                                                                                     KS

Friday January 21, 2011

8:20	Dave Cameron:  I've got a bit of free time, so let's talk about this craziness.

8:20	[Comment From Mike]  As a Jays fan, all I can say is, are you serious?

8:20	Dave Cameron:  Canadians already have their own Thanksgiving celebration, now they get Christmas in January too.

8:21	[Comment From Ethan]  Original opinion on Wells deal?

8:21	Dave Cameron:  What the bleep are the Angels doing?

8:21	Dave Cameron:  For those who haven't seen Shi Davidi's tweet, he's hearing that the Jays may not be covering any of the $84 million that Wells is still owed, by the way. $84 million for 4 years of Vernon Wells.

8:21	[Comment From Pickle]  How can the Angels justify this trade if the rumors are true and the Jaus are sending no money along?

8:22	Dave Cameron:  It's crazy. If that is true, this will go down as one of the worst trades ever. This can't be true.

8:22	[Comment From Eric Heckman]  The big loser in this has to be Sean Rodriguez right?

8:22	Dave Cameron:  I believe you're forgetting Tony Reagins.

8:23	[Comment From NM]  The Angels finally found a taker for their money......

8:23	Dave Cameron:  I guess if you can't get Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre, Vernon Wells is the next best thing. Oh, wait, no, he's like the 943rd next best thing.

8:23	[Comment From njh]  How much $ would the Jays have to send for this to be even CLOSE to fair?

8:24	Dave Cameron:  I don't know, $50 million? $60 million? What would you have signed Vernon Wells for if he was a free agent this winter? Probably no more than 3/30, right?

8:25	[Comment From garyclark]  How many years do the Angels have left on Wells? And why did they do it, while also giving the Jays a useful playe?

8:26	Dave Cameron:  He's signed through 2014. As for why they did it, I'd assume that we either haven't heard a critical detail yet. Perhaps the Jays included CN tower, for instance.

8:26	[Comment From TheNatural]  My logic leads me to believe that the only way the Angels agree to this is if Wells agreed to restructure his contract...and EVEN THEN it doesn't make much sense

8:26	Dave Cameron:  The player's association probably wouldn't let Wells do that. The Jays have to be kicking in money. It's the only way this would make sense.

8:26	[Comment From Matthew Carruth]  $86 million I believe for Wells. $23 then 3 years of $21

8:27	Dave Cameron:  Even better!

8:27	[Comment From Mike]  over/under 1 war per year for vernon wells over the next four years?

8:27	Dave Cameron:  Well, let's not get carried away. He did put up 4.0 WAR last year. He's not useless.

8:28	[Comment From steve]  how do project Wells for the duration of his contract?

8:28	Dave Cameron:  I'd probably have him as an average-ish player for the next few years, then maybe slightly below average by the end of the deal. Which is clearly worth $80 million...

8:28	[Comment From jimbo]  quick, the giants might be able to unload zito on the angels now.

8:29	Dave Cameron:  Piling on, but funny.

8:29	[Comment From Grady]  Any chance the MLB rejects this trade given how hilairous it is?

8:29	Dave Cameron:  No, but that would be great. I can't imagine that phone call from Selig. "Tony, I can't let you do this. Have you seen Vernon Wells play lately?"

8:29	[Comment From Danmay]  Napoli in TOR with a full season at-bats could definitely break 30 HRs

8:30	Dave Cameron:  For sure. It's the perfect place for him. It is interesting how determined they are to not let Arencibia play.

8:30	[Comment From Jim Hendry]  What do you think are the odds I could convince the Angels to take Alfonso Soriano too?

8:30	[Comment From Mike]  did the reports say anything about Alex Anthopoulos holding a gun when he made the trade?

8:31	Dave Cameron:  These questions are cracking me up.

8:31	[Comment From Vernon Wells]  They aren't going to make me play CF, are they?

8:31	Dave Cameron:  They should run Wells in center, Abreu in left, and Hunter in right. Then people of Los Angeles could have two teams with historically horrific defensive outfields.

8:31	[Comment From Cody]  Do you think the signing of both Damon and Manny is a signal that Jennings isn't ready? Could we really see either in LF for the defense oriented Rays?

8:32	Dave Cameron:  I think Damon is definitely Jennings insurance. They can use him at 1B/LF, depending on which one of Johnson/Jennings doesn't hit as well as hoped.

8:32	[Comment From HaloFan]  What do you think Reagins' rationale was for this trade? Eating all that salary and giving Napoli is way too much.

8:32	Dave Cameron:  There simply has to be more than hasn't been reported yet. There has to be.

8:33	[Comment From Nahder]  Carl Crawford at 7 years 142 and no first rounder or Vernon wells 4 years 87 million minus napoli and rivera? How can they justify this?

8:33	Dave Cameron:  Yeah...

8:35	[Comment From Alex]  My logic leads me to believe the Angels have received confirmation the world is in fact ending in 2012 so they no they don'y have to pay the whole thing.

8:35	Dave Cameron:  This is the best theory yet.

8:36	[Comment From Red]  I'm not familiar with the Angels reputation. Are they known to dabble is sabermetrics? 'Cause these are some real head-scratchers here.

8:36	Dave Cameron:  Not at all. They're old school, scout based, and generally very good at it. This is not their finest hour.

8:37	[Comment From Nahder]  Does LA ask the angels to change their name back to the Anaheim Angels after this?

8:37	Dave Cameron:  Still laughing.

8:39	[Comment From Matt]  Don't you think Napoli's role will be more of a 1B/DH while catching maybe 1 day a week?

8:39	Dave Cameron:  Possible. It gives the Jays a lot of options, certainly.

8:39	[Comment From TheNatural]  This is reminiscent of a guy coming home from the bar at 3 a.m. completely wasted with $15 worth of taco bell and accepting some bogus trade offer in his fantasy league.

8:39	[Comment From Mike]  Is the Wells contract better or worse than Lackey

8:40	Dave Cameron:  Way, way worse.

8:40	[Comment From Matt]  Thanks for doing this. Impromptu chats like this when something like this happens has a lot to do with Fangraphs being so enjoyable

8:40	Dave Cameron:  I haven't had this much fun laughing at a trade in a long time.

8:40	[Comment From JC]  This news is so unbelievable I was convinced Drabek and JPA were involved. Wow.

8:41	Dave Cameron:  Jays fans are experiencing when Mariners fans heard about the Cliff Lee deal last winter. "Wait, we got what? For what? You're not serious."

8:41	[Comment From Mark]  From Jon Heyman's twitter: Wells home ops .991, road ops .708

8:41	Dave Cameron:  You know you've made a bad deal when Jon Heyman is providing legitimate analysis.

8:42	[Comment From Jon]  Not that he's going to improve dramatically, but in the Angel's lineup, do you see his numbers improving if he swings the bat at the same level as last year?

8:42	Dave Cameron:  His numbers will drop just from changing parks.

8:42	[Comment From Tim]  What if there is NOT more to this. Reagins lose job by ASB?

8:42	Dave Cameron:  I would consider this a fireable offense. Moreno could cut him loose tomorrow and everyone would understand.

8:43	[Comment From corco]  Assuming some money is going from Toronto to LA, what is the maximum amount that could reasonably be traded without raising red flags with MLB?

8:43	Dave Cameron:  The Rangers picked up something like $40 million of A-Rod's deal when they moved him. The Rockies paid close to that for Hampton too.

8:43	[Comment From Bill Bavasi]  I've been nodding my head in satisfaction since this trade went down.

8:43	Dave Cameron:  Still laughing.

8:44	[Comment From Justin]  Maybe reagins just caught Moreno with his wife

8:44	Dave Cameron:  Another good theory.

8:45	[Comment From Tony Reagins]  You wont be laughing when we win the division by 15 games

8:45	Dave Cameron:  You're right. In 2024, when the franchise is back on track, you'll get the last laugh.

8:46	[Comment From Greg]  How quickly do you think Alex A. approved this deal? Did Reagins even finish the offer or did AA cut him off with, "DONE!"

8:47	Dave Cameron:  I'd imagine there were celebratory high fives going on in the background.

8:47	[Comment From Matthew Carruth]  How many Dan Haren trades would it take to offset this deal (as its being reported)?

8:47	Dave Cameron:  10, 11?

8:47	[Comment From hjrrockies]  "angels could have one of best def outfields in bb if wells trade goes down" - @BNightengale

8:47	Dave Cameron:  If they're also acquiring a time machine in the deal, he could be right.

8:48	[Comment From Justin]  What would be a comparable trade to this one if the money is indeed off the table?

8:49	Dave Cameron:  Strasburg, Harper, and Zimmerman for Zito? Posey and Lincecum for Alfonso Soriano?

8:49	[Comment From Henry]  Does Reagins join the elite Dayton Moore status?

8:49	Dave Cameron:  The Angels generally do a lot of stuff right as an organization. That's what makes this so crazy.

8:50	[Comment From Matt S.]  If salary were no concern, would you take Napoli or Wells? Napoli more consistent, 3 years younger, I mean you have to think about that right? Then add the guaranteed salaries in (6M vs. 86M) and it really shows how awful this trade is for the Angels.

8:51	Dave Cameron:  In a vacuum, where money didn't matter, I'd probably take Wells. I'm not a huge Napoli fan. But, once you consider costs, this becomes crazy.

8:53	[Comment From Spalding]  I know this is a ridiculous amount of money, but is it possible that we are witnessing massive inflation in baseball? seems like ton of large contracts been given out lately, and Angels also willing to pay Wells 80 Mill?

8:53	Dave Cameron:  this isn't inflation. This is insanity.

8:56	[Comment From Sebastian]  So, do you think the unreported part of the deal is likely to be prospects, money, or lots of both?

8:56	Dave Cameron:  It's gotta be just a couple of hundred mounties personally escorting bags of cash to LA.

8:57	[Comment From Johnny]  Comp trade: Slocumb for Lowe and Varitek

8:57	Dave Cameron:  This is worse. Those guys both had some legitimate flaws when the M's traded them, and they developed into the absolute best case scenarios.

8:58	[Comment From Ron]  Just how well would Wells have to perform to live up to what's essentially a 4 year, 86 million dollar contract? (Or something like that)

8:58	Dave Cameron:  He'd need to be somewhere in the range of a +4 to +5 win player each of the next few years with only moderate decline. He's been worth +5.5 wins over the last three years combined.

8:59	[Comment From Guest]  Wells is worth at most half of what he will be paid. If the Jays paid half of Wells' salary would the trade be a win for the Angels?

8:59	Dave Cameron:  Do you think Wells would have gotten 4/43 this winter? Not me.

8:59	[Comment From Andrew]  Assume Wells puts up 12 WAR over the life of the contract - at $86 million, even with no money thrown in, is that worse than Jayson Werth's contract? At least the Angels have a chance to compete now.

8:59	Dave Cameron:  Why woulld you assume Wells can put up 12 WAR over the next four years?

9:00	[Comment From Ixcila]  Are you serious about Lincecum-Posey for Soriano as a comp? I'm high on Napoli and not a giant Wells fan, but c'mon. Those are two Giant (pun intended) young talents. It's not quite that bad.

9:00	Dave Cameron:  That was an attempt at humor. Obviously, this is nothing like that.

9:01	Dave Cameron:  Okay, we'll close with this little tidbit - right now, the most common referrer to the site is twitter. #2 - "DrunkJaysFans" - I'd imagine they're all getting even more wasted in celebration right now.

9:01	Dave Cameron:  G'night everyone.