On Ichiro, for just a second.

Did you have any idea Ichiro was this much smaller than Jeter?

Ichiro occupies kind of a strange place: so overrated that he's underrated or so underrated that he's overrated, or something. Non-nerd baseball fans are likely to think he is ridiculously awesome, whereas nerds are quick to point out that no, Ichiro does (or rather has done) a couple of things exceptionally well -- hit for average; steal bases at an historically high rate of success; field his position excellently -- but has been far less valuable over the course of his very fine career than many other players that you don't care about in the least. In fact, the nerds are correct, but with the caveat that also Ichiro is ridiculously awesome. 


Ichiro is unique and stylish and graceful and we love him, which is what makes this, his first truly bad season, such a drag. There's realistically nothing he can do in this final month of the season to salvage this utter butt of a year, if we are measuring his performance in the best ways we know how (he has barely been above replacement level as measured by whichever WAR you prefer), or even superficially (fifty points off his career average, and sixty below his career OBP). If, however, all we want is for Ichiro to have yet another 200-hit season, then maybe. 


Just a few days ago, Steve Rudman (whose work I did not know previously, but who has a kind look and so I am predisposed to like him) wrote a fine piece called "40 Hits to 200: Not Even Ichiro Can Do It," in which Rudman, pained, clearly and precisely details the muck and despair that has led us here and the daunting task that lies ahead. When I read it, I was completely convinced: Ichiro is old now, and this isn't going to happen. However! What if it did? Last night, Ichiro went 4-5, and hit a home run for the second straight day. With eighteen games to play, Ichiro now needs 33 hits, which is still nuts, but maybe? It wouldn't mean that Ichiro isn't in serious decline, or that he's not coming up fast on the end a Hall-of-Fame career, or anything like that, but it would a heck of a thing, wouldn't it? An eleventh-straight 200-hit season? Who wouldn't want to see that? And it looks like even the WARriest nerds are in on this one, too: as of this morning, Ichiro is the most popular player page right now at Fangraphs.


KS