 |
| guys its too much |
Jésus Sanchez's game-tying solo shot off Zack Wheeler in the sixth more or less marked the end of the pitchers' duel portion of last night's programme, with Dylan Cease already in the clubhouse (metaphorically [literally he was mostly in the dugout]) having allowed just the one run on a pair of doubles in the Phillies' first and striking out eleven in his first start back from the IL (hammy reasons). Or I suppose that was the end of the starters' portion of the pitchers' duel, as we had excellent sevenths and eighths turned in from the Phillies' Kerkering and Alvarado, and from our own Fluharty and Hoffman. On Hoffman, whose BABIP woes we have addressed previously, FanGraphs just ran a piece by Davy Andrews titled "Jeff Hoffman and the Worst BABIP of All Time" (subtitle: "Holster your pitchforks, people"), and that really is the BABIP territory we're in here. Much of this is attributable to how he is giving up rockets and/or laser beams, as we have discussed very recently indeed, but some of it really is just weirdly persistent bad luck, like last night, when the only baserunner he allowed grounded pretty much directly to smooth-fielding Andrés Gimenez, whose internal clock just glitched for like three-tenths of a second or something, and whose throw thus arrived slightly late to first for no discernible reason at all. Giménez makes that play, what, forty-nine times out of fifty? Ninety-nine out of a hundred? But last night, in the seventh, he didn't, and it was Hoffman on the mound, so up ticks the BABIP. How high can it go? I am morbidly curious! This Hoffman situation really does illustrate just how widely/wildly bWAR and fWAR can differ for pitchers, as bWAR is focused quite squarely on the "what happened" of runs allowed, whereas fWAR exists in the long shadow of Voros McCraken, and takes as its central input the "what probably ought to have happened / what is demonstrably more likely to happen going forward" fielding-independent FIP, focusing primarily on the "three true outcomes" pitchers most directly control (strikeouts, walks, home runs). (I have been thinking about FIP more than usual lately as I have been pen-and-paper-and-calculatoring a little FIP myself for some card-and-dice baseball simming I have been up to and which I will obviously share with the class in due time, but let us not digress too hard at present.) In extreme cases—and Jeff Hoffman's is about extreme as cases get—the difference can be startling and stark (starkling? [like a thrush?]). Are we to react with horror at the lived reality of Jeff Hoffman's -0.7 bWAR thus far, or are we to draw some measure of comfort and consolation from what Jeff Hoffman's 0.5 fWAR might portend? I choose to do both, I guess.
Anyway, everybody pitched wonderfully until the closers arrived, and Louis Varland, like a fool of some kind, allowed his second earned run of the season (way out of line, Louis Varland; way out of line), putting the Blue Jays down a run headed into the bottom of the ninth to face Jhoan Duran, who, while not quite enjoying the perfectly absurd results Louis Varland has so far this season, is nevertheless an outstanding reliever who rules. Or does he? He does, yes, but he had a rough inning al the same: Sanchez singled and was replaced by pinch-runner Myles Straw; Pinango singled Straw to third and was replaced by pinch-runner Daulton Varsho, who promptly stole second; Varsho scampered to third and Straw to home with the tying run on a wild pitch; and young Brandon Valenzuela knocked a single to left to bring Varsho home and end it. A stirring win! And one that puts the Blue Jays back in a playoff position! Somehow! Before you know it we will have won as many games as we have lost, maybe! Max Scherzer on the hill tonight! I'm a little worried!
KS
No comments:
Post a Comment