And Just Like That, The Blue Jays Have The Best Record in Baseball

 

How can we know the flipper from the flip?

I was already perfectly content with how things had gone, and how they were continuing to go, when the Blue Jays picked up their fifty-ninth win of the season in their hundredth game, a feat they have never managed previously. I was even more content when, after sweeping the San Francisco Giants and taking two-out-of-three from the defensively-woeful Yankees (I feel no woe about that personally, of course), the Blue Jays trounced the sliding Detroit Tigers to overtake Houston for the top spot in the American League broadly (please note that the Astros will forever be a National League team to me and nothing can change this). But after last night's additional Tigers-drubbing, my heart grew contentlier still, as the Blue Jays now hold—however fleetingly—the best overall record in baseball (sixty-two wins against forty-two losses) for the first time time since August 2nd, 1992, a season I remember as vividly as baseball from thirty-three years ago can be remembered (which is actually super vividly, in several key regards). This season has been, and continues to be, a marvel, and one of the particular ways I have been marveling at it is to consider how much it feels to me like 1992, in particular, in that the 1992 Blue Jays, on paper, did not present all that differently, in terms of what you'd expect from them, from any team since about 1987 (I am setting aside our best-ever 1985 squad, a missed opportunity forever to be mourned), which is to say: the 1992 team looked like a solid contender, just as they had for the better part of a decade, but there were several other solid contenders against which they must inevitably contend, and who can say what might arise out of that contention? But then they won, and you look back at it, and maybe even run a little Baseball Mogul or Out of the Park (who among us has not at least dabbled?), and it is like, yeah, an excellent baseball team, but what made that team the one that finally won? Happenstance, as much as anything, I suppose. About the 1993 team, there is of course no mystery: having spent all of the money that has ever existed, the only time the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays were not on base is when they were jogging back to the dugout from home plate having recently scored. It would have been insane for them not to have won. And so they did. 

This is in no way a prediction, of course, or an expectation that I have, but the 2025 team gives me the 1992 feeling, in that they are a team that, despite last year's obvious disaster, has been contending with the same core for five years, made a few little tweaks but nothing remarkable headed into this year, and yet here we are atop the league, somehow. And yet, here's how we're doing it: leading the league(s) in batting average, on-base percentage, and on-base-plus-slugging, all of which feels heavily 1993-coded. They aren't slugging like one might have hoped or expected, but they are putting the ball in play at an improbable rate (not by historical standards, but by contemporary ones), and BABIPping their way to glory and renown. The starting rotation has been good but not great; the bullpen has been good but not great; and people are still complaining about Vladdy (perhaps the only player in the league who could go two-for-four with a single, a double, and a walk, and it'll be like "man what's wrong with Vladdy?"). And yet here we are. Oh, and of course the fielding: it has been excellent once again; we are truly spoiled for fielding, and having watched the Yankees kick the ball around the other night for four errors (a gross tally that, even in its grossness, does not capture the extent of their misplay), dude I am so grateful for all the fielding (great job guys!).  

With just a few days to go before the trade deadline, the Blue Jays are expected to be as "all in" as is realistically possible given who is available (it's not going to be a huge year for anybody, looks like), but maybe the biggest improvements are to found internally? As soon as Daulton Varsho returns, our already-excellent defense improves, and we'll be getting more out of his bat than we're getting out of Myles Straw's (no diss, Myles Straw; love your hustle out there bro); can Anthony Santander offer at least the possibility of a power bat off the bench, once he is able to resume "baseball activities" (a phrase of which I am very fond)? What if Alek Manoah, continuing his long rehab, is able to offer even minimal service down the stretch, to lighten the load on the bullpen if nothing else? That last one is probably a stretch. The boldest move, and the one that appeals to me the most, would be to truly follow the example of the 1992 season, and trade for David Cone. But nobody listens.

KS

Really This is All Going Very Well

 

All-Star guys, All-Star belts

Have the Blue Jays ever had fifty-five wins at the All-Star break? No, they have not previously, no, and the fact that the actual date of the All-Star break has shifted around a little here and there does nothing to damper how rad I find this all to be. First place! By a couple games! The ten-game winning streak that included four in a row against the Yankees at home on and around Canada Day is not just a season highlight, but a Blue-Jays-so-far-this-century highlight, and not one I sill soon forget (how vividly I recall the Blue Jays four-game road sweep of the Yankees in 2003, and yet this one was way, way better). Has George Springer ever hit quite like this? Even when he was busy winning the 2017 World Series MVP? Maybe, maybe, but please keep in mind that he is super old now, and so all things must be seen through through that darkening lens (do you guys know the poem that goes, in part, "Do not give way to pride. / For a brief while your strength is in bloom / but it fades quickly; and soon there will follow / illness or the sword to lay you low, / or a sudden fire or surge of water / or jabbing blade or javelin from the air / or repellent age. Your piercing eye/ will dim and darken; and death will arrive, / dear warrior, to sweep you away"? I ask on account of how it is a good one). What a weird season! Would you believe the Blue Jays would be in any kind of shape at all at this point if you knew going in that Vladdy and Bo were going to have "just okay" years, that Varsho and Santander would be quite thoroughly hurt (plus Yimi slipped in a tub), and that a complete Bowden Francis collapse would leave the rotation short-handed and the (Yimi-less) bullpen overtaxed? Sounds like a disaster, right? And yet here we are, looking to go all-in at the trade deadline to win our first AL East title in a literal decade. That everything could still totally fall apart, remains, of course, self-evident, and while I am acutely aware of this ever-present fact, I must say that I am in no way worried about it. Could totally happen! Wouldn't that be both silly and a shame if it did! But what can you do? This has all been great; perhaps it will continue to be; wouldn't that be neat?  

KS

Half-Way (Half-Way) Blue Jays (Blue Jays): Let's Play Ball?

 

You've Got: A Diamond
You've Got: Nine Men

Eighty-one games down! Eighty-one to go! And where do we stand? What better place to determine that than the literal standings, which have our forty-four-win, thirty-seven-loss Blue Jays a mere three games back of the less-than-amazing-so-far New York Yankees, and three-and-a-half games ahead of the pretty okay Cleveland Guardians (the best-performing team not currently tucked all comfers/cozers into a tidy little playoff berth [our present tucking has us at "Wild Card 2"]). There are several things to note about the Blue Jays' collective first-half performance, I think, and the first is that it took last night's nine-nothing win over the Red Sox to push the Blue Jay's stubbornly poor run differential into positive territory; this is to say, on the level of scoring runs and also preventing them (this is a very important level! of baseball!), this is really not a team that should be playing at a .543 clip, an eighty-eight-win pace. Outperforming your run differential, or badly underperforming it, can just be a function of weird luck, of course, but it can sometimes be a function of either a particularly well-performing or especially unbearable bullpen situation, but I do not think this is the case here? Among the characteristics that have defined our first half, you would not list "a lockdown closer ensuring we win all the one-run games" among them, right? And yet the Blue Jays have in fact been winning all kinds of close ones, even with an overworked and not-always-so-sharp bullpen, and winning lots and lots of comeback games, too, which is obviously a super exciting kind them to win. It is entirely possible that this has just been noise, statistically, and that the Blue Jays, without really regressing in terms of run differential (bro, they are the mean), will play a little under .500 in the second half and end up almost exactly the eighty-three-win team FanGraphs projected them to be. However! The value of early-season wins is greater than ones that come later! In that it is first-half wins that compel teams to add ahead of the trading deadline rather than ship guys off! The second-half is often characterized by strong teams, now stronger, running—if not roughshod, than at least roughershod than before—over weak teams that have become, at least in the short term, weaker (owing to a deepened lack of guys). I think maybe the 2025 Blue Jays are a more-or-less .500 team, who have by luck or guile snuck out of the first half with enough wins to convince the front office to add a couple arms and maybe even a bat en route to what could be an oddly understated ninety-win season? I feel like this is where I would really like the rest of this summer to go: I would like the 2025 Blue Jays to be the least impressive ninety-win team in Blue Jays history. I have begun to think that nothing, in a way, could be finer? 

KS

A Scant Hundred Games Remain

 

club vibes

After yesterday afternoon's full-on drubbing of the still-good Phillies, the Blue Jays moved into a tie for second-place in the good-but-not-great AL East, and a tie, too, for the WC3 playoff position. All of this is good! You will recall that not long ago they were playing so poorly! And yet, after sixty-two games of this 2025 season—a number of no real importance, other that it leaves precisely one hundred games to play, which is also a number of no real importance, other that it is, in a sense, a pleasing one—here we sit at a perfectly reasonable 33W-29L, good for a winning percentage of .532 (despite our -1 run differential!), an eighty-six-win pace extrapolated over the fullness of the long summer. Eighty-six wins has been enough to get you into the playoffs in two of the three seasons since this welcoming new format has been adopted, a format which keeps you more or less in the running most of the way should you so much as stay slightly above .500. So far, so good, mostly? 

I thought it might be an interesting time to check in on how everyone is doing in the broadest sense, which is to say by having a quick look at everybody's fWAR, the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement. A very general note on the scale of things here (feel free to quibble): by definition, a statistically determined replacement-level player would accrue 0.0 fWAR over the course of a full season; an average player would accrue something like 2.0 (one of the great virtues of WAR as a concept is it recognizes the significant value of being average: a roster full of replacement-level players projects to a miserable forty-something wins, depending how you do it; but a roster full of average, 2.0 WAR players would likely win more than ninety games and be a legitimately championship level team); 4.0 WAR represents a true All-Star kind of season; 8.0 WAR and you're looking at a league MVP (naturally, when using terms like "All-Star" and "MVP," we mean richly deserving ones, and not the super weird things that happen when weird votes happen, like when 1996 Juan Gonzalez wins the AL MVP as the third or fourth best player on his team [3.5 fWAR {a good season!}], whereas Ken Griffey Jr. did not, despite having literally one of the greatest seasons of all time [9.7 fWAR]). So that's the scale, and we're only sixty-two games in, so multiply any of these by 2.6 to get a sense of what these would be over the full season, if you like. Oh hey, quick note: Aaron Judge, I am noticing just now, is at 5.3 fWAR so far, so he's on pace for a 13.8, more than a full win better than any individual season by Actual Barry Bonds, though it would still come in a little under Babe Ruths's 1923 season. He's having a good first half! Shohei Ohtani, if you're wondering, is comparatively dogging it at 3.3 fWAR, which projects to a merely conventional MVP-level season of 8.6 in a season in which he is still rehabbing his elbow and therefore not pitching. You're embarrassing yourself, Shohei Ohtani. If you were wondering who is doing the worst by fWAR so far this season, it is the White Sox Andrew Vaughn, who put up -1.3fWAR before being sent to the minors, and about whom a recent headline reads, "Is There Any Hope Left for Andrew Vaughn?" That's a tough spot. Anyway, here are our guys: 

THE GUYS OVER ONE SO FAR: 

1. Alejandro Kirk 1.8

2. Ernie Clement 1.7

3. Addison Barger 1.5

4. Kevin Gausman 1.4

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.4

6. Chris Bassitt 1.4

7. Bo Bichette 1.2

8. Tyler Heineman 1.2

LIGHT COMMENTARY UPON THOSE GUYS: Kirky! As he is called by his boiz! It is remarkable that he has become one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball, which is worth a good chunk of fWAR on its own, but he's hitting everything of late, and so here we are. Ernie Clement is for sure a surprise here, but when we lost Matt Chapman at third, Clement's defense at that position was actually statistically better than Chapman's, plus they are also playing Clement all over the infield now, and he's been great everywhere. Addison Barger, who is built like a monster and hits everything super hard, has exceeded everyone's expectations so far, and it will be interesting to see whether, long-term, he settles in at third or in right (the José Bautista conundrum, defensively: great arm, but how is he at getting to his immediate left or right super quickly?). Kevin Gausman remains, like Chris Bassitt a couple spots below him, a yeoman of a guy, just innings upon innings. Vladdy is having a middle-of-the-road Vladdy season so far, and I will take one of those every year, please. Bo has started hitting for power again of late, which is a delight, and I wonder what they're going to do about his contract? It's a much trickier situation than the settled matter of Vladdy, really, and I would not at all be surprised to see him head elsewhere (I would get it, but I would not like it). Tyler Heineman's standing here again shows the value of a good defensive catcher who is able to hit, like, at all, and the Blue Jays continue their tradition of getting an absurd amount of value out of the catcher spot broadly. 

THE GUYS BETWEEN ZERO AND ONE: 

9. Myles Straw 0.8

10. George Springer 0.7

11. Daulton Varsho 0.7

12. Brendan Little 0.7

13. José Berrios 0.6

14. Nathan Lukes 0.5

15. Mason Fluharty 0.4

16. Andrés Giménez 0.4

17. Yimi Garcia 0.3

18. Nick Sandlin 0.2

19. Paxton Schultz 0.2

20. Davis Schneider 0.2

21. Braydon Fisher 0.2

22. Jonatan Clase 0.1

23. Josh Walker 0.1

24. Jeff Hoffman 0.1

25. Eric Lauer 0.1

26. Yariel Rodriguez 0.1

27. Casey Lawrence 0.0

28. Jacob Barnes 0.0

29. Michael Stefanic 0.0

30. Ali Sanchez 0.0

INTERMITTENT COMMENTARY UPONST THEM: In this range we find a mix of everyday players who are doing alright-to-pretty-well, bench guys who are doing a good job or maybe even overperforming in their limited roles, a whole lot of relief pitchers (whose specific contributions are not necessarily captured in WAR, as their real impact is a product of leverage more than anything, right?), and several players who were on the roster for like twenty minutes. It must be said that Myles Straw, whose acquisition was much maligned, has been fantastic in his limited playing time, and all the bench outfielders have really done well in the absence of Daulton Varsho, who has been great when healthy, but barely healthy so far (a true drag, that, and not unlike the Gimenez situation, I guess, too). George Springer, who is legitimately old now, is hitting! But he is no great shakes in the field at this point, despite his continued efforts, and has been DHing quite a bit. It's not a lot of fun to see José Berrios in this mix, but I'm unconcerned; he'll be at least fine, I bet. Bullpen standouts so far have been Brendan Little and Mason Fluharty (what a name!), whereas I am sorry to report that I have very little faith in closer Jeff Hoffman.    

NEGATIVE WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT CAN'T BE A GOOD TIME FOR ANYBODY:

31. Alan Roden -0.1

32. Erik Swanson -0.1

33. Richard Lovelady -0.1

34. Easton Lucas -0.1

35. José Urena -0.1

36. Dillon Tate -0.1

37. Max Scherzer -0.2

38. Will Wagner -0.4

39. Chad Green -0.4

40. Bowden Francis -0.7

41. Anthony Santander -0.8

SAD THOUGHTS ON THESE GUYS BUT NOT TOO SAD: It's easy to slip into a false sense of precision with fWAR, or really with any all-in-one value like this, and it's important to remember that even the staunchest proponents of this measure are quick to caution that there is no meaningful way you can look at fWAR and fWAR alone and say that Player A's 4.2 fWAR season was for sure better than Player B's 3.9 fWAR season; Dave Cameron used to always caution (perhaps he still does, in his private life; who knows) that fWAR is useful to within about one full win, and beyond that, you've got to start digging if you want to make finer distinctions. The benefit of fWAR is that, despite its complicated and varied inputs, it offers us a quick and coarse measure with which we can broadly distinguish between different types of seasons. But someone who is at -0.1 at this point is not necessarily having a very different time from someone how is at 0.1, so we can't get too bent out of shape about this sort of thing. All that said: Anthony Santander, now on the Injured List, has been just awful so far, unfortunately; Bowden Francis, who was utterly thrashed by the Phillies this week, hasn't been much better, and what is up with Chad Green? Being at -0.4 fWAR in only twenty-six innings is wildly bad, especially from a long-reliable reliever. I hope this isn't the end of the line for him, but he's thirty-four now, and one cannot help but wonder. Still with old pitchers: Max Scherzer was for sure with a shot, but it's hard to see it working out all that well from here, probably, right? Ah well. So it goes.  

Anyway, those have been our guys; long may they continue to win slightly more games than they lose, and thus enrich our summer tremendously. Let's enjoy further baseball! And then reconvene to discuss it a little! 

KS

     

Catching (baseball pun? an exceedingly light one?) Up

fun to see but honestly I would hate this so much
and not be a very good sport about it
 ("Vladdy," I would say, "we discussed this, and I said no")

Since last we spoke, the Blue Jays dropped two of three oddly excellent games to the oddly excellent Detroit Tigers (long may they prosper; R.I.P. to our old friend Neil), looked unstoppable against the ever-interesting San Diego Padres (solid contenders for best uniforms in the game, especially when you factor in their outrun/synthwave City Connects), scored but two runs over the course of three games whilst being swept by the Rays in their fairly charming minor-league non-Trop home for the season (hurricanes: remain no joke), continued not to score—almost even, at times, to unscore—in Texas but came away with a pair of wins all the same, then completed a truly rad four-game sweep of the tragically reduced Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas/Nowhere Athletics to peak up over the .500 mark and join the six-team Clutterbuck that constitutes the AL Wild Card situation. It's been good stuff! And so far this week, the Blue Jays got so trounced so early by the Phillies on Tuesday night that you couldn't even really mind the loss (if you stick with all nine innings after a first that looks like that, rather than find another way to spend your evening, that is quite frankly on you at that point), and followed that game with a walk-off win that saw Vladdy steal second (I was so happy for him) on account of how Phillies closer Jordan Romano (remember him?), for all his virtues, has never been much for holding runners at first, before Alejandro Kirk knocked one off the wall in for the game-ending RBI single (they might have had it as a double; I guess it depends on how swiftly Vladdy made his way home [okay I have checked, and it was a single {good hustle, Vladdy}]). Kirk, who is the least emotionally expressive professional baseball player I have ever observed in my forty-or-so-years of such observation, permitted himself quite a smile and even a little helmet toss as he was swarmed by his bros as he rounded second. It was all pretty nice! There's an afternoon game today of the "getaway-day" variety with a nice pitching matchup (Bassitt and Luzardo), and I am fairly stoked for it. These 2025 Toronto Blue Jays are by no means world-beaters, at thirty-two and twenty-nine (tidily outperforming their minus-nine run differential!), but they remain totally in the mix, and have been a likeable bunch. I would take this literally every year, honestly. Let's all enjoy a pleasant summer very much like this, please.   

KS

Haunted Once More by the Rays

 

everybody just loves this guy, on account of how he is "neat"

I tuned into Tuesday night's game just in time to see Vladdy and Springer work two-out walks ahead of Varsho's second homer of the night—this one off the facing of the upper deck in right—to put the Blue Jays ahead 7-6 in the eighth. John Schneider got Hoffman up quick in the pen, as one would do, and I remained quite stoked right up until the moment Hoffman set the ball on a tee for a Junior Caminero grand slam that stood up for the win despite a pair of Blue Jays runs in the bottom half. "This game has had way too many events," I texted to a couple of pals in the immediate aftermath; "Fewer events next time please, guys." Having got my letter, the Blue Jays then played a tight game marked mostly by how rad Alejandro Kirk remains, throwing out one of the fastest players in the game early, and hitting a three-run home run to win it late. Then they got clobbered on getaway day. And so the Blue Jays are again below .500 as the excellent-so-far Tigers come to town (they're twenty-nine and fifteen!). I don't know, man. I don't know.  

KS

Counterpoint: Maybe West-Coast Road Trips are the Greatest?

go Bo

If our west-coast road trips are going to take us to Seattle, where thousands of Blue Jays fans show up every year and make things utterly delightful, and we're going to sweep our way back to the .500 mark, I am willing to settle down, at least in a preliminary sense, about west-coast road trips broadly. A little. 

KS 

West Coast Road Trips Exist to Make Me Sad Right Before Bed

 

Logan "Hippity" O'Hoppe

Even though we took the third game of the series on the strength of another fine outing by our agreeable psycho Chris Bassitt, the first two were just crushing, given both the particular pitchers who got lit up—first Yimi (Yimi!), then Hoffman—and, even more than that, the sheer time of night (or indeed morning). I was in the very act of getting ready for bed! The very act of it! This is the danger, I suppose, of having baseball on one's computer-phone, rather than on one's non-phone computer (or even "tv"). 

KS

Please, not Yimi; anyone but Yimi.

 

oh no

As a longstanding Yimi Garcia ultra, Saturday's 5-3 loss to Cleveland, in which four of those Cleveland runs came on an eighth-inning Daniel Schneeman grand slam allowed by that very same Yimi, was a particularly difficult one for me personally. I note, sadly, that things really aren't going very well at all so far, are they? Fourth place, a couple games under .500? It is certainly true that there is a lot of baseball left to play, but if the old Billy Beane maxim about the shape of the season—that you've got two months to figure out what you've got, two months to try to fix it, and two months to see if it worked—holds true, we are quickly getting towards the end of the first third of that eminently sensible way of thinking about things, and it's not great (aside from how I am really quite enjoying watching at least a little bit of baseball most days).   

KS

Comebacks! Dingers! Comeback Dingers!

 

they call him "Kirky," though the origins of that sobriquet remain obscure

Taking two-out-of-three at home against the Red Sox is a fairly normal outcome, but this pair of come-from-behind wins felt pretty special, in particular to the extent that they had homers in them. Blue Jays ones, even! It is a deeply weird to me that the Blue Jays are hitting so few homers, because I do not think it is unreasonable to look at their roster and think that there would be some homers in there? And not even tucked away too deeply? But just sort of self-evidently there? And yet no, that would not seem to be the case, at least not so far. I saw the other day that in terms of the straight-up differential of home runs allowed vs. home runs enbombened, the Blue Jays were a league-worst negative twenty-two (I am sure the exact figure is somewhat different these several days later). There are lots of ways to win baseball games, surely, but the dinging of dingers has proven an extraordinarily effective way of doing so over these many years, and I would invite wholeheartedly the Blue Jays to explore this possibility further as soon as they are able. Thanks guys. 

KS 

It did not go that well in New York

 

can we . . . can we talk about this?

Well, Friday night was fine, and even good, actually: a three-run top of the ninth, Alejandro Kirk knocking in a pair after throwing a couple guys out earlier in the game? That's great stuff! And perhaps gave me unrealistic expectations for the remainder of the weekend. After a Saturday rainout, the thought of a doubleheader Sunday quite delighted me, in all honesty, but Kevin Gausman's fifty-three pitch inning (fifty-three! that's the most any Blue Jay has ever thrown in an inning! because of how it is way too many!) early in game one really set the tone for how miserable this was all going to be. Dropping the Sunday games by a combined score of sixteen to three is dark, but it is a darkness I largely escaped by just doing other things with most of my Sunday afternoon. But that is not a decision I should have to make, Blue Jays; don't put me in spots like this; not on Sunday afternoons.

KS

Nine hits in three games? Blue Jays, I can divide

 

I will never not find José Altuve neat

Whither the bats? Have they withered, the bats?

KS

Et tu, Rowdy?

 

incredible that he hit it without a bat!
(j/k if you look closely there actually was a bat)

The first of our old friend Rowdy Tellez's home runs over the weekend was inoffensive enough, coming as it did in a Friday night Mariners loss; his third, on Sunday, was honestly fine, too, because the Blue Jays were done anyway. But the middle one, the twelfth-inning grand slam on Saturday, that one cut me pretty deep. I watched way too much of that game to enjoy something like that at the end of it. I honestly felt I had been made a fool of. It was not a good feeling. 

KS

Hey Gang, It's Vladdy

Vladdy can finally afford a jacket that is sufficiently pink for his needs

Unless my recollection of this season's FanGraphs projections fails me—and I am reasonably sure that it does not!—the only two teams projected for ninety-or-more wins  this year were Atlanta (sounds about right) and the Dodgers (it would be very weird for them not to). So far, though, Atlanta has played really very poorly, which is just fine by me, since we had to play them three times just now. The series was bookended by Vladdy, who did the public-facing part of his reupping with the Blue Jays for fourteen more years (yay) on Monday, and who hit his long-awaited first home run of the season in Wednesday afternoon's getaway game (it was school day! you could really hear all the kids!). "It's about fucking time!" he could be heard to remark, cheerfully, in a hot-mic-in-the-dugout situation. Things are going pretty well! Mariners coming in for the weekend! And they haven't been great so far! Let's go!

KS

Middling Fun in Baltimore

 

still the perfect ballpark probably

Friday night, I felt fairly aggrieved when I clicked on Rogers Sportsnet and found no Blue Jays game, thinking Apple TV+ must have stolen away another one (for they are villains), but it turns out it was god himself who denied us Blue Jays baseball on this night by making it rainy. Saturday was not much better (other than that it was sunny), in that the Blue Jays hit into five double-plays—five! that's so many! the AL record is six!—though in fairness, one was a strange situation where Vladdy was said to have left first base early on a very heads-up tag-up play, when in fact he did not leave early at all (as revealed through Jomboy analysis), but nobody challenged (aside from Vladdy, in his heart, and also somewhat verbally). However! Sunday ruled! In that the Blue Jays kept kind of blowing it but clawing their way back in, helped by some bottom-of-the-order scrappiness plus also a key hit by Bo Bichette, who is the literal top of the order, so that part's different. But it was all very good. I will take the split. These young Orioles no longer seem quite the menace they once did, but they've for sure got some guys who are going to be a problem for us for like a decade.

KS

Blue Jays Win Nearly All the Games

 

whenever I see Bo these days my brain just kind of fills in the hair

After the Blue Jays took game two of this four-game series in Fenway, I texted one of the two pals with whom I text about Blue Jays baseball, boldly and almost correctly arguing that the Blue Jays, an unstoppable juggernaut comfortably on pace for a one-hundred-win season, were going to take all four, and that it wasn't even going to be all that hard. Wednesday's game, in which the Sox (lightly) touched up Nick Sandlin, made a fool of me, but Thursday's, in which Nick Sandlin got not only his revenge, but mine as well, left me feeling just great about the whole week, honestly.

KS

So As Not to Show Off, the Blue Jays are Swept in New York

 

in which Mr. Met gives in to astonishment

The Blue Jays dropping all three against the Mets is one thing—disappointing!—but a Saturday baseball game that starts at 7:10PM? Instead of in the afternoon? What are we even doing here, boys? Saturday baseball is to be contested in the afternoon, as a backdrop to ones chores or, through the radio broadcast, also possibly errands. It is not for Saturday evenings! Unless it is a west-coast road trip, in which case there is little to be done! But the biggest Blue Jays news coming out of the weekend, arguably, is the fourteen-year, $500-million-dollar extension that will see Vladimir Guerrero stay with the team until he is forty, and, just as importantly, until I am sixty. In addition to being an entirely sensible deal for both sides—about two-thirds of the Juan Soto deal? making Vladdy the ninth-highest paid player in the game as of this moment? that all sounds about right, doesn't it?—this is also just lovely, and makes me sad all over again about how the Blue Jays didn't so much as offer my favourite baseball player Carlos Delgado a contract after the 2004 season. This is a whole lot better than that! And as I saw someone point out on this very same internet through which we are speaking even now, this would seem to all but guarantee that Vladdy will end up as the most productive Blue Jays position player ever (could he maybe even take a run at Dave Stieb's fairly bananas 56.4 bWAR?). Vladdy's at 21.6 bWAR so far at age twenty-six, and here's the position player top ten:

  

Pretty interesting, isn't it? The wild thing about José Bautista coming out ahead of both Tony Fernandez and Carlos Delgado like that is that he wasn't even good for all that long, really; it's just that for those few years, he was like insanely good. It really was quite a time. 

And now it's Vladdy's! Go forth, young Vladdy! Why not prosper! A series in Fenway seems like a perfect opportunity for dingers! Let's get some! Of those! 

KS  

Why Wouldn't We Sweep the Nationals?

 

safe at home / safe as houses

At absolutely no risk of getting ahead of anything at all, I note eagerly (though not overly) that these five-and-two 2025 Blue Jays are on pace to surpass the 114-win 1998 Yankees and match the 116-win 2001 Mariners (a team that you may well recall for being the first one that had Ichiro Suzuki on it [hey he's going into the Hall of Fame this year, isn't he?]). I would note further that not even the gods themselves could prevent this from happening. 

KS   

Opening Weekend 2025: A Split! I'll Take it!

 

this is my new friend Andrés Giménez

After an Opening Day debacle that really couldn't have gone worse—aside from how we had hot dogs, root beers, and crinkle-cut fries—the Blue Jays' big Friday-night win came on an Apple TV+ game, making it worse than if it hadn't happened at all (a radical view, but one that I hold resolutely). Saturday afternoon, they'd just gone up 4-2 on Andrés Giménez's second home run of this our young season (he has also already made some very nice plays at second) when, like fools, we decided to go for a nice walk. When we returned, of course, all was blasted. How pleasing, then, to see the Blue Jays hold on to their 2-1 first-inning lead (I missed the first inning) throughout the long remainder of yesterday's game, tacking on a late run on a homer from Taylor Heineman, of literally all people (just his second in career that has seen him bounce in and out and around the majors since 2019 [he was stoked about it]). A season-opening split is fine! I have no problem with it! I don't know that the Orioles will be ninety-plus-wins good again this season, but they sure don't seem likely to be bad, so I'll take it without complaint (aside from those listed above). It is regrettable that Max Scherzer seems to be lightly hurt already, that Daulton Varsho continues to be unwell, and that we have already DFA'd our best-named relief pitcher (Richard Lovelady), but I am genuinely looking forward to this season of Blue Jays baseball, not in the sense that I have great hopes and aspirations of a remarkable outcome of any sort (I agree with FanGraphs projection of eighty-four wins!), but more that I am just very into the idea of it being, like around. Let us endeavour to discuss it here! Lightly! A little! Things definitely trailed off around these parts last season, but so too did the Blue Jays themselves, you may well recall, so I only (baseball)feel(ing[s]) a little bad about it. Anyway, the Nats are in next! I have no ideas of any kind about them! Let's see!

KS  

The Rest-of-August Wrap Up: Honestly? Really Pretty Good!

the lads

Aside from the reflections on the fleeting nature of all human glory occasioned by the retirement of the great Joey Votto (several from Votto himself, delivered in his characteristic mélange of disarming frankness, fondly recalled childhood, and straight-up whimsy), you know something? August was a great month of Blue Jays baseball! I admit that several of the young boppers currently bopping remain strange to me, but it is a welcome strangeness after a fairly feeble first half from the guys of whom I had previously heard. As you know, fifteen-win months (which don't even sound that hard!) are the gateway to ninety-win seasons (which are almost impossible!), and it kind of crept up on me that the Blue Jays actually managed sixteen wins in August. Did it help to play seven against the Angels? Oh necessarily, and yet the Blue Jays won literally all seven, which is in and of itself pretty sweet. Vladdy has continued to mash well above his (young) career (young) norms, and looks to be a top-ten player in all of baseball on the year with even a decent September to wrap things up. More surprisingly, for at least a few weeks, Bowden Francis has been the best pitcher in all of baseball. Nobody thinks that's going to hold, obviously, but it's been neat, and if he could even be a decent middle-of-the-rotation sort of guy next year, that would go an awfully long way (towards my enjoyment). With a good September, the Blue Jays would end up a .500 team; with a decent one, a handful of games under, which would probably feel like a the fairest representation of what has been. But I don't know. I feel like this team as currently constituted, with no real upgrades over the winter, is a slightly better than .500 team in 2025, and there will certainly be a little upgrading here and there with whatever money remains after signing Vladdy to a zillion-year, squillion-dollar contract extension (please please please do this, guys). 

Anyway, as Keegan Matheson noted recently, "baseball: they just keep playing it." Let's see how it goes!

KS

2024 Games One-Hundred-Fifteen through One-Hundred-Seventeen: Blue Jays 4, Angels 2; Blue Jays 6, Angels 1; Blue Jays 9, Angels 2

 

bro bro bro bro bro bro bro bro bro bro bro bro

I can only understand this three-game sweep against the Angels as a further attempt to troll me with a belated charge at the .500 mark, and honestly, I'm not thrilled about it. Nor was George Spriger thrilled, one might transition seamlessly, about a hit-by-pitch call that did not occur the other night, and which became the subject of a pretty good Jomboy breakdown here. The only thing Jomboy misses by talking over the in-game audio is George Springer's delightfully high-pitched "What?" of pure disbelief just before he totally lost it. Even when he is lightly misbehaving, as he certainly is here, I nevertheless find George Springer a likeable guy, and I hope he is able to continue with his recent work of not being the league's worst hitter (it's more fun for me when he isn't). 

KS

2024 Games One-Hundred-Twelve through One-Hundred-Fourteen: Blue Jays 3, Athletics 1; Athletics 1, Blue Jays 0; Athletics 8, Blue Jays 4

I think they should just believe Vladdy in these situations

A drag, certainly, to drop two of three to an Oakland team that, while way better than it probably should be, is nevertheless not at all good, but the most notable thing to occur this weekend was the end of Vladdy's twenty-two game hit streak, only six shy of the team record. Want to see the list? I bet you do! 

28 Shawn Green (1999)

26 John Olerud (1993)

26 Shannon Stewart (1999)

26 Edwin Encarnacion (2015)

25 Scott Rolen (2009)

22 Vladimir Guerrero (2024)

22 Vladimir Guerrero (2022)

22 Carlos Delgado (2000)

22 George Bell (1989)

Some surprises there for sure! Is Shawn Green the best Blue Jay I usually forget ever even played for us? I think he might be!

KS

2024 Games One-Hundred-Nine through One-Hundred-Eleven: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2; Orioles 7, Blue Jays 3; Blue Jays 7, Orioles 6

 

go Vladdy go

Well alright! Well okay! Two out of three from the first-place Orioles! That's all we need! Do that like eight more times and we're right back at .500! And still probably in last place in the AL East, but there is a quiet dignity to every .500 season, in my view, and it remains my genuine although distant hope that we get there. I will note, though, that one problem we seem likely to come up against in that regard is that, between the deadline deals and some regrettably persistent injuries, the bullpen is looking a little thin, quite frankly; things are a little lean out there. A little lean. Out there.   

KS

2024 Games One-Hundred-Six through One-Hundred-Eight: Blue Jays 8, Yankees 5; Yankees 8, Blue Jays 3; Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3 (F/10)

reality has reached the point that it often looks
almost as good as MLB 10: The Show

One of the more cheering things that can happen in the course of a baseball season is for an underperforming roster understandably abandoned by its front office after a poor showing in the first half somehow finds within itself whatever it was that had been missing and goes on a spirited and unlikely run no one thought they had in them. Let me be very clear that that is not in any way what seems to be happening here. However! The Blue Jays played pretty well in Yankee Stadium this weekend! Friday was a convincing performance; Saturday admittedly got away from them a little; but Sunday was an extra-innings affair that could easily have gone either way. Have the seemingly-still-playoff-bound Yankees been in something of a tailspin for kind of a while now? Sure! But this was still good! Good job, Blue Jays! I really will try to learn the names of the new guys as soon as the Olympics are behind us and you have my undivided sporting attention once more (for now it's just too much).

KS

2024 Games One-Hundred-Two through One-Hundred-Five: Orioles 11, Blue Jays 5; Blue Jays 8, Orioles 4; Orioles 6, Blue Jays 2; Orioles 10, Blue Jays 4

 

curse that handsome devil

"Blue Jays Hoard Prospects in Eight Deadline Deals" is probably pretty far from the kind of headline any of us had expected headed into this season, but with a seeming lock on last place in the AL East one hundred games into this lightly dismal summer, it's the thing to do, right? To identify prospects? And then to hoard them? Notably, the Blue Jays did not trade anyone to whom their contract commitments extended beyond this present year, but only those who would be leaving in a couple months anyway: Yimi, Nate Pearson, and Danny Jansen, as we'd mentioned previously, followed by Justin Turner, Kevin Keirmaier, Trevor Richards (whose changeup will be missed! by me!), IKF, and, completely unsurprisingly, Yusei Kikuchi, in a deal that had Astros fans bemoaning how much they were giving up for really-not-that-many Yusei Kikuchi starts. To those Astros fans I would say firstly that Yusei Kikuchi is a special guy (just you wait and see), and secondly thank you very much haha. I am insufficiently "up on things" to really know how the Blue Jays made out on all these trades, but the consensus from the wags seems to be that they made out really quite well, given the circumstances? With the expanded Wild Card playoffs keeping more teams in the running later into the season, and so (in the sense of "thus") fewer teams truly selling, guy-yields (how much you for your guys) are now significantly higher than we're used too. A silver lining!

And here's another: Vladdy went seven-for-ten with three doubles, two homers, and five RBIs in Monday's doubleheader against the much, much better Baltimore Orioles, and is on as hot a run as he's had at the dish as at any point since his monstrous, MVPesque 2021 season (a troubled time for us all, but less so for Vladdy [though perhaps I presume too much]). For the rest of the way, I will mostly just be on VladdyWatch, I think, though I will try to keep my heart open to the possibility of other neat things happening as well. 

KS

2024 Games Ninety-Nine through One-Hundred-One: Blue Jays 6, Rangers 5; Blue Jays 7, Rangers 3; Blue Jays 7, Rangers 3

 

Yusei'd Kikuchi; we said pitch (with apologies to the great Maureen Konnyu)

What a strange weekend: a walk-off win Friday night, a Kevin Gausman complete game Saturday, and homers from Varsho and Vladdy (another one!) to complete the sweep. Good times! And yet these were also the days in which we began the trading of all our guys. Yimi Garcia will no doubt have a nice time in Seattle, but what sort of time am I to have in his absence? Has that been considered? Nate Pearson to the Cubs is not a move I feel deeply, but Danny Jansen to the Red Sox is a tough one. Jansen, a power-hitting catcher enjoyed by all, was drafted by the Blue Jays at seventeen, and had been our longest-serving Blue Jay, but I guess that's probably Vladdy now? The worst, of course, is yet to come, as there is no chance they don't trade Yusei Kikuchi, for sure one of the top starting pitchers available ahead of this year's deadline. Our time with Yusei Kikuchi began as a genuinely baffling ordeal, from which he emerged as a truly sympathetic character as he lived and died with every pitch, perhaps the most scrutable pitcher I can recall. And though he has not worn his banana yellow glove in quite some time, he will forever wear it in my heart, both hands on head as he waits to see if Kevin Kiermaier was able to run that one down in the gap . . . oh thank god he did, okay, big breath, what's next . . .    

KS  

2024 Games Ninety-Six through Ninety-Eight: Rays 5, Blue Jays 2; Blue Jays 6, Rays 3; Rays 13, Blue Jays 0

 

"work from dome"

Ah, a getaway-day afternoon game to wrap the three-game set after splitting the first two; how pleasant! Unless you give up thirteen runs (five in the seventh to go along with the four in the sixth) against just two hits. That's really all we got! Just the two!

KS

2024 Games Ninety-Three through Ninety-Five: Tigers 5, Blue Jays 4; Tigers 7, Blue Jays 3; Blue Jays 5, Tigers 4

 

tfw Vladdy gets one

It is somewhat dispiriting, certainly, that the Detroit Tigers had more grand slams this weekend (that would be two) than the Toronto Blue Jays had wins (just the one), but I would instead like to focus firstly on how Vladdy's seasons continues to chug along at a reasonable pace (as pictured above), and then (which is to say now) on how George Springer, who spent two months as literally the worst hitter in the major leagues, is all of a sudden catching up with the 95MPH+ fastballs against which he had previously seemed totally overmatched, and now stands as a slightly above average batter (103wRC+) with a real shot at a possibly-non-messed-up season (1.6 fWAR at the moment). So that's something!

KS

2024 Games Ninety through Ninety-Two: Diamondbacks 5, Blue Jays 4; Diamondback 12, Blue Jays 1; Blue Jays 8, Diamondbacks 7

you said it, Yusei Kikuchi; you said it, brother

I felt good for the recently waived (and, darker still, cleared) Kevin Kiermaier when he slammed grandly Sunday afternoon against the (underperforming? yet still much better than us?) Arizona Diamondbacks. Kiermaier, a legitimately all-time great defensive centre fielder (all of the available numbers confirm the eye-test in this case), continues to go like hell out there, but with dwindling results, and this could very much be it for him. What's worse, he's pretty clear-eyed about it: "If it’s the end," he told Hazel Mae, "I’m blessed and grateful." That's for sure the right mindset, but it makes it harder to watch than if he was leaving the game embittered and spiteful. Ah jeez, is all one can muster about the whole situation. The Blue Jays needed every one of those four Kiermaier RBI on Sunday as they barely hung on to eke out their only win in a fairly shabby series to wrap a miserable first half of deservedly last-place baseball. The only other really remarkable occurrences over the weekend were Daulton Varsho's triples in three straight games (how weird is that!) and John Schneider getting tossed on an egregious swinging strike call that went against, well, Daulton Varsho, actually (he's in the mix!). It was nice to see Lourdes Gurriel Jr. continue to bloom where he's planted, his hair now a deeply charismatic purple to match a D-backs accent colour. I miss that guy! Not like I miss Téo, though, who spent some quality time with Vladdy Monday night whilst winning the Home Run Derby. Vladdy wore an old Hernandez 37 Blue Jays jersey for the final round, which moved me more than I would have expected, even? "It’s like we were born to have this friendship," Téo said about Vladdy one time, which is really quite a thing to say about your pal.

KS

2024 Games Eighty-Eight through Ninety: Mariners 2, Blue Jays 1; Blue Jays 5, Mariners 4; Blue Jays 5, Mariners 4 (F/10)

 

he caught this one, and then hit the wall *so* hard

Although it was a drag to drop a game in which Kevin Gausman struck out ten, that was really the only drag of any kind across this delightful weekend of baseball in front of huge Seattle crowds that consisted of, conservatively, fifteen-thousand-or-so Blue Jays fans each day. The atmosphere was fantastic! And strangely tense, for all that it was a pleasantly overperforming first-place team against a tremendously underperforming last-place one (guess which one's us!). As we enter the last few weeks before the trade deadline, and so the last few weeks with this particular group of Blue Jays of which I remain quite fond (despite all that has occurred), this unexpectedly cheering weekend felt like a bittersweet sendoff for some yet-to-be-determined guys. It was a useful reminder, too, that whether the Blue Jays are in first place and cruising, or woefully out of it to start July, the fundamentals of my experience of baseball remain the same: I will put the game on, and if it is close or otherwise interesting, I will enjoy some baseball, and if it is not, I will mutter, then pursue other interests. It's pretty good either way.   

KS 

2024 Games Eighty-Four through Eighty-Seven: Astros 3, Blue Jays 1; Blue Jays 7, Astros 6; Astros 9, Blue Jays 2; Astros 5, Blue Jays 3

 

there are roughly a squillion Blue Jays pictures
from this angle and I like every one of them

On Canada Day, Yariel Rodríguez took a perfect game into the fifth, but the Blue Jays lost 3-1; the next day, the Blue Jays jumped out to a 7-0 lead through four, and barely hung on for a 7-6 win. It actually felt kind of worse! This is the first season in what feels like a very long time that the Astros haven't been especially good, or even really all that good at all, so to lose three of four to them feels different (and pretty bad!) than it had in recent years (honestly who could mind it?). Anyway. On we go.   

KS  

2024 Games Eighty through Eighty-Three: Blue Jays 9, Yankees 2; Yankees 16, Blue Jays 5; Blue Jays 9, Yankees 3; Yankees 8, Blue Jays 1

 

hey, good for him

George Springer came into Friday night's game against the Yankees as literally the worst hitter in the league by OPS (a slightly mathematically-invalid measure that nevertheless correlates awfully strongly with runs scored, so here we are!), and, as you would therefore expect, launched two three-run home runs (even one would have been pleasingly novel!). It was lovely to see, honestly, as this season must just be misery for him (allowing, of course, for the fact that all of his material needs continue to be extremely met). It was a strange start to what ended up a strange series: you'd think a series-split against the until-recently-first-place Yankees would be a fairly welcome thing in a more or less straightforward sense, but the two games the Blue Jays lost were just lost so hard that it felt like we lost like eight games or so (in a single weekend). More cheeringly, though, Vladdy continues to rake to such an extent that he was named the AL Player of the Week and has taken the lead in All-Star voting for first base. Good for him! May Vladdy's exploits continue to sustain us through this lightly unsatisfying Blue Jays season. 

KS

2024 Games Seventy-Eight, Seventy-Nine, and Eighty (kind of): Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 6; Blue Jays 9, Red Sox 4; Plus a Rainout

get a roof

The Boston series consisted of an enormously dispiriting loss, a genuinely stirring triumph, and a game suspended in the second inning due to rain. The three true outcomes!

KS

2024 Games Seventy-Five, Seventy-Six, and Seventy-Seven: Guardians 7, Blue Jays 1; Guardians 6, Blue Jays 3; Guardians 6, Blue Jays 5

 

oh I hear you loud and clear, Yusei Kikuchi

It is with more relief than sadness that I note that this weekend was when I stopped worrying about the Blue Jays' 2024 season: in terms of making a run at the postseason, or even a run at run at the postseason, it is now pretty much a wrap (and in June, no less!). This is certainly not an unfamiliar place to be as a baseball fan in general, or a Blue Jays fan in particular, but these last few years have of course been very different: the Blue Jays have played "meaningful" games (understanding that in the broader context there is of course no such thing [or/also that in the broader broader context, perhaps everything is such things?]) literally every day from the weird (and yet crucial) 2020 season through the end of 2023. With the Blue Jays now in a truly brutal and fairly hopeless slide, there has been much chatter about how ineptly the team has been constructed, and how everybody in charge needs to go, and all that sort of thing, and hey maybe so (there comes a time), but over the last four seasons before this still-unfolding disaster, the Blue Jays have played .556 baseball, which is exactly a ninety-win pace, and have made the playoffs three times. That's about as good as it gets! And I would remind you that, for as much fun as was had in 2015 and 2016, these last few years have been the first time the Blue Jays have been this good for this long in thirty years. Not that they are good now, obviously; now they are in fact quite bad, and this particular series in Cleveland felt legitimately cursed. How can you get swept while hitting eight home runs? That's wild! How do you throw seventy pitches in a single inning? That is perhaps even wilder! (Apparently it hadn't happened to anybody in like ten years.) But it's all fine. There's still baseball on. It'll be nice.

KS   

2024 Games Seventy-Two, Seventy-Three, and Seventy-Four: Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 3; Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 3; Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 3

 

hey man looking sharp

The bad news is the Blue Jays were swept at home at the very moment they seemed poised—a little poised? lightly poised?—to finally get back to .500 with (maybe? possibly?) a series win against the beatable Red Sox, and it is truly a worrisome drag that they did not; but the good news is that Vladdy's new haircut is pretty good! The braids were often tremendous, no question, but at a certain point it's just time for a change, you know? My initial analysis is that short-haired Vladdy looks even more like his father, even though his father, as you will no doubt recall, often wore braids himself. Can't explain it!

KS