Half-Way (Half-Way) Blue Jays (Blue Jays): Let's Play Ball?

 

You've Got: A Diamond
You've Got: Nine Men

Eighty-one games down! Eighty-one to go! And where do we stand? What better place to determine that than the literal standings, which have our forty-four-win, thirty-seven-loss Blue Jays a mere three games back of the less-than-amazing-so-far New York Yankees, and three-and-a-half games ahead of the pretty okay Cleveland Guardians (the best-performing team not currently tucked all comfers/cozers into a tidy little playoff berth [our present tucking has us at "Wild Card 2"]). There are several things to note about the Blue Jays' collective first-half performance, I think, and the first is that it took last night's nine-nothing win over the Red Sox to push the Blue Jay's stubbornly poor run differential into positive territory; this is to say, on the level of scoring runs and also preventing them (this is a very important level! of baseball!), this is really not a team that should be playing at a .543 clip, an eighty-eight-win pace. Outperforming your run differential, or badly underperforming it, can just be a function of weird luck, of course, but it can sometimes be a function of either a particularly well-performing or especially unbearable bullpen situation, but I do not think this is the case here? Among the characteristics that have defined our first half, you would not list "a lockdown closer ensuring we win all the one-run games" among them, right? And yet the Blue Jays have in fact been winning all kinds of close ones, even with an overworked and not-always-so-sharp bullpen, and winning lots and lots of comeback games, too, which is obviously a super exciting kind them to win. It is entirely possible that this has just been noise, statistically, and that the Blue Jays, without really regressing in terms of run differential (bro, they are the mean), will play a little under .500 in the second half and end up almost exactly the eighty-three-win team FanGraphs projected them to be. However! The value of early-season wins is greater than ones that come later! In that it is first-half wins that compel teams to add ahead of the trading deadline rather than ship guys off! The second-half is often characterized by strong teams, now stronger, running—if not roughshod, than at least roughershod than before—over weak teams that have become, at least in the short term, weaker (owing to a deepened lack of guys). I think maybe the 2025 Blue Jays are a more-or-less .500 team, who have by luck or guile snuck out of the first half with enough wins to convince the front office to add a couple arms and maybe even a bat en route to what could be an oddly understated ninety-win season? I feel like this is where I would really like the rest of this summer to go: I would like the 2025 Blue Jays to be the least impressive ninety-win team in Blue Jays history. I have begun to think that nothing, in a way, could be finer? 

KS

A Scant Hundred Games Remain

 

club vibes

After yesterday afternoon's full-on drubbing of the still-good Phillies, the Blue Jays moved into a tie for second-place in the good-but-not-great AL East, and a tie, too, for the WC3 playoff position. All of this is good! You will recall that not long ago they were playing so poorly! And yet, after sixty-two games of this 2025 season—a number of no real importance, other that it leaves precisely one hundred games to play, which is also a number of no real importance, other that it is, in a sense, a pleasing one—here we sit at a perfectly reasonable 33W-29L, good for a winning percentage of .532 (despite our -1 run differential!), an eighty-six-win pace extrapolated over the fullness of the long summer. Eighty-six wins has been enough to get you into the playoffs in two of the three seasons since this welcoming new format has been adopted, a format which keeps you more or less in the running most of the way should you so much as stay slightly above .500. So far, so good, mostly? 

I thought it might be an interesting time to check in on how everyone is doing in the broadest sense, which is to say by having a quick look at everybody's fWAR, the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement. A very general note on the scale of things here (feel free to quibble): by definition, a statistically determined replacement-level player would accrue 0.0 fWAR over the course of a full season; an average player would accrue something like 2.0 (one of the great virtues of WAR as a concept is it recognizes the significant value of being average: a roster full of replacement-level players projects to a miserable forty-something wins, depending how you do it; but a roster full of average, 2.0 WAR players would likely win more than ninety games and be a legitimately championship level team); 4.0 WAR represents a true All-Star kind of season; 8.0 WAR and you're looking at a league MVP (naturally, when using terms like "All-Star" and "MVP," we mean richly deserving ones, and not the super weird things that happen when weird votes happen, like when 1996 Juan Gonzalez wins the AL MVP as the third or fourth best player on his team [3.5 fWAR {a good season!}], whereas Ken Griffey Jr. did not, despite having literally one of the greatest seasons of all time [9.7 fWAR]). So that's the scale, and we're only sixty-two games in, so multiply any of these by 2.6 to get a sense of what these would be over the full season, if you like. Oh hey, quick note: Aaron Judge, I am noticing just now, is at 5.3 fWAR so far, so he's on pace for a 13.8, more than a full win better than any individual season by Actual Barry Bonds, though it would still come in a little under Babe Ruths's 1923 season. He's having a good first half! Shohei Ohtani, if you're wondering, is comparatively dogging it at 3.3 fWAR, which projects to a merely conventional MVP-level season of 8.6 in a season in which he is still rehabbing his elbow and therefore not pitching. You're embarrassing yourself, Shohei Ohtani. If you were wondering who is doing the worst by fWAR so far this season, it is the White Sox Andrew Vaughn, who put up -1.3fWAR before being sent to the minors, and about whom a recent headline reads, "Is There Any Hope Left for Andrew Vaughn?" That's a tough spot. Anyway, here are our guys: 

THE GUYS OVER ONE SO FAR: 

1. Alejandro Kirk 1.8

2. Ernie Clement 1.7

3. Addison Barger 1.5

4. Kevin Gausman 1.4

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.4

6. Chris Bassitt 1.4

7. Bo Bichette 1.2

8. Tyler Heineman 1.2

LIGHT COMMENTARY UPON THOSE GUYS: Kirky! As he is called by his boiz! It is remarkable that he has become one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball, which is worth a good chunk of fWAR on its own, but he's hitting everything of late, and so here we are. Ernie Clement is for sure a surprise here, but when we lost Matt Chapman at third, Clement's defense at that position was actually statistically better than Chapman's, plus they are also playing Clement all over the infield now, and he's been great everywhere. Addison Barger, who is built like a monster and hits everything super hard, has exceeded everyone's expectations so far, and it will be interesting to see whether, long-term, he settles in at third or in right (the José Bautista conundrum, defensively: great arm, but how is he at getting to his immediate left or right super quickly?). Kevin Gausman remains, like Chris Bassitt a couple spots below him, a yeoman of a guy, just innings upon innings. Vladdy is having a middle-of-the-road Vladdy season so far, and I will take one of those every year, please. Bo has started hitting for power again of late, which is a delight, and I wonder what they're going to do about his contract? It's a much trickier situation than the settled matter of Vladdy, really, and I would not at all be surprised to see him head elsewhere (I would get it, but I would not like it). Tyler Heineman's standing here again shows the value of a good defensive catcher who is able to hit, like, at all, and the Blue Jays continue their tradition of getting an absurd amount of value out of the catcher spot broadly. 

THE GUYS BETWEEN ZERO AND ONE: 

9. Myles Straw 0.8

10. George Springer 0.7

11. Daulton Varsho 0.7

12. Brendan Little 0.7

13. José Berrios 0.6

14. Nathan Lukes 0.5

15. Mason Fluharty 0.4

16. Andrés Giménez 0.4

17. Yimi Garcia 0.3

18. Nick Sandlin 0.2

19. Paxton Schultz 0.2

20. Davis Schneider 0.2

21. Braydon Fisher 0.2

22. Jonatan Clase 0.1

23. Josh Walker 0.1

24. Jeff Hoffman 0.1

25. Eric Lauer 0.1

26. Yariel Rodriguez 0.1

27. Casey Lawrence 0.0

28. Jacob Barnes 0.0

29. Michael Stefanic 0.0

30. Ali Sanchez 0.0

INTERMITTENT COMMENTARY UPONST THEM: In this range we find a mix of everyday players who are doing alright-to-pretty-well, bench guys who are doing a good job or maybe even overperforming in their limited roles, a whole lot of relief pitchers (whose specific contributions are not necessarily captured in WAR, as their real impact is a product of leverage more than anything, right?), and several players who were on the roster for like twenty minutes. It must be said that Myles Straw, whose acquisition was much maligned, has been fantastic in his limited playing time, and all the bench outfielders have really done well in the absence of Daulton Varsho, who has been great when healthy, but barely healthy so far (a true drag, that, and not unlike the Gimenez situation, I guess, too). George Springer, who is legitimately old now, is hitting! But he is no great shakes in the field at this point, despite his continued efforts, and has been DHing quite a bit. It's not a lot of fun to see José Berrios in this mix, but I'm unconcerned; he'll be at least fine, I bet. Bullpen standouts so far have been Brendan Little and Mason Fluharty (what a name!), whereas I am sorry to report that I have very little faith in closer Jeff Hoffman.    

NEGATIVE WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT CAN'T BE A GOOD TIME FOR ANYBODY:

31. Alan Roden -0.1

32. Erik Swanson -0.1

33. Richard Lovelady -0.1

34. Easton Lucas -0.1

35. José Urena -0.1

36. Dillon Tate -0.1

37. Max Scherzer -0.2

38. Will Wagner -0.4

39. Chad Green -0.4

40. Bowden Francis -0.7

41. Anthony Santander -0.8

SAD THOUGHTS ON THESE GUYS BUT NOT TOO SAD: It's easy to slip into a false sense of precision with fWAR, or really with any all-in-one value like this, and it's important to remember that even the staunchest proponents of this measure are quick to caution that there is no meaningful way you can look at fWAR and fWAR alone and say that Player A's 4.2 fWAR season was for sure better than Player B's 3.9 fWAR season; Dave Cameron used to always caution (perhaps he still does, in his private life; who knows) that fWAR is useful to within about one full win, and beyond that, you've got to start digging if you want to make finer distinctions. The benefit of fWAR is that, despite its complicated and varied inputs, it offers us a quick and coarse measure with which we can broadly distinguish between different types of seasons. But someone who is at -0.1 at this point is not necessarily having a very different time from someone how is at 0.1, so we can't get too bent out of shape about this sort of thing. All that said: Anthony Santander, now on the Injured List, has been just awful so far, unfortunately; Bowden Francis, who was utterly thrashed by the Phillies this week, hasn't been much better, and what is up with Chad Green? Being at -0.4 fWAR in only twenty-six innings is wildly bad, especially from a long-reliable reliever. I hope this isn't the end of the line for him, but he's thirty-four now, and one cannot help but wonder. Still with old pitchers: Max Scherzer was for sure with a shot, but it's hard to see it working out all that well from here, probably, right? Ah well. So it goes.  

Anyway, those have been our guys; long may they continue to win slightly more games than they lose, and thus enrich our summer tremendously. Let's enjoy further baseball! And then reconvene to discuss it a little! 

KS

     

Catching (baseball pun? an exceedingly light one?) Up

fun to see but honestly I would hate this so much
and not be a very good sport about it
 ("Vladdy," I would say, "we discussed this, and I said no")

Since last we spoke, the Blue Jays dropped two of three oddly excellent games to the oddly excellent Detroit Tigers (long may they prosper; R.I.P. to our old friend Neil), looked unstoppable against the ever-interesting San Diego Padres (solid contenders for best uniforms in the game, especially when you factor in their outrun/synthwave City Connects), scored but two runs over the course of three games whilst being swept by the Rays in their fairly charming minor-league non-Trop home for the season (hurricanes: remain no joke), continued not to score—almost even, at times, to unscore—in Texas but came away with a pair of wins all the same, then completed a truly rad four-game sweep of the tragically reduced Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas/Nowhere Athletics to peak up over the .500 mark and join the six-team Clutterbuck that constitutes the AL Wild Card situation. It's been good stuff! And so far this week, the Blue Jays got so trounced so early by the Phillies on Tuesday night that you couldn't even really mind the loss (if you stick with all nine innings after a first that looks like that, rather than find another way to spend your evening, that is quite frankly on you at that point), and followed that game with a walk-off win that saw Vladdy steal second (I was so happy for him) on account of how Phillies closer Jordan Romano (remember him?), for all his virtues, has never been much for holding runners at first, before Alejandro Kirk knocked one off the wall in for the game-ending RBI single (they might have had it as a double; I guess it depends on how swiftly Vladdy made his way home [okay I have checked, and it was a single {good hustle, Vladdy}]). Kirk, who is the least emotionally expressive professional baseball player I have ever observed in my forty-or-so-years of such observation, permitted himself quite a smile and even a little helmet toss as he was swarmed by his bros as he rounded second. It was all pretty nice! There's an afternoon game today of the "getaway-day" variety with a nice pitching matchup (Bassitt and Luzardo), and I am fairly stoked for it. These 2025 Toronto Blue Jays are by no means world-beaters, at thirty-two and twenty-nine (tidily outperforming their minus-nine run differential!), but they remain totally in the mix, and have been a likeable bunch. I would take this literally every year, honestly. Let's all enjoy a pleasant summer very much like this, please.   

KS